Tian Feng International analyst Guo Mingxuan shared the latest Apple research report. Key conclusions include: iPhone will grow strongly in the next 2 years, and the industry chain will be the core of investment in the electronics industry in 2020. Benefiting from 5G upgrades, new designs and better product portfolios, we expect iPhone shipments to increase by approximately 6% and 8% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. YoY will be between 205-210 million and 220-250 million units, with suppliers generally Expect significant benefits. Among them, we believe that the 5G related and optical industry will have the most significant growth in the next 2 years.
Apple will release new iPhones in 1H20 and 1H21, which will help suppliers’ performance in the off-season.
Our key predictions for the new iPhone 2020 are as follows:
1. Supporting 5G is the most important technical upgrade of the new 2H20 iPhone. All 2H20 new iPhones are equipped with Qualcomm’s X55 and 5G support, and are sold according to different countries only models supporting Sub-6G or Sub-6G + mmWave.
2. For countries without 5G or low penetration, Apple may use software to turn off the 5G function of the Sub-6G iPhone model to reduce the cost of purchasing Qualcomm X55.
3. iPhone models supporting Sub-6G + mmWave are expected to be released in 5 markets, including: the United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom. Sub-6G + mmWave iPhone models account for approximately 15-20% of new 2H20 iPhone shipments.
4. The new 2H20 iPhone product segment is mainly the display size and rear camera specifications. There are four new 2H20 iPhone models, including 5.4-inch OLED iPhone (rear dual camera), 6.1-inch OLED iPhone (rear dual camera), 6.1-inch OLED iPhone (rear triple camera + ToF), and 6.7-inch OLED iPhone ( Rear three cameras + ToF).
5.Apple will release 5 new iPhone models in 2020. The iPhone SE2 with a 4.7-inch LCD will be available in 1H20, and four other new iPhone models will be available in 2H20. The iPhone SE2 looks the same as the iPhone 8, and the four new 2H20 iPhones look similar to the iPhone 4.
Our key predictions for the new iPhone 2021 are as follows:
1.Apple will release iPhone SE2 Plus in 1H21. We predict that the display size will be 5.5 or 6.1 inches. It will adopt a full-screen design. Because it does not support Face ID, the fringe area is small. Touch ID will be integrated with the side power button.
2. Apple will create more differences between the highest-end models and other high-end models, which will help increase the shipments of the highest-end models and iPhone ASP. In the new 2H21 iPhone, we expect that the highest-end models may cancel the Lightning connection hole and provide a more complete wireless experience.