How bookmakers calculate odds and implement sports betting security
Those who practiced betting have wondered how bookmakers implement the security of sports betting. In this article, we’ll look at where bookmakers get their odds from and why they change them all the time.
What are the odds in sports betting
The odds are the probability of a particular outcome together with the bookmaker’s margin, which means the net profit in case of a successful basketball live bet.
It is possible to determine the possible payout by multiplying the stake by the odds in the bookmaker’s office.
Margin in sports betting is the bookmaker’s commission put into the odds. Calculating margin as a percentage of the European odds:
(1 / K1 + 1 / K2 + 1 / Kn – 1) x 100, where K1, K2, Kn are the odds on the outcomes of one market, n is the number of choices in one market.
How bookmakers calculate odds of one or another outcome
The odds are calculated in the three steps described below.
● Probability. The bookmakers first use the work of analysts who determine the probability of an event (data from analytical agencies or trust the opinion of their employees).
● Calculation of odds. the results obtained are translated into odds.
● Adding margin. Bookmakers put a margin in the odds to be in the long run in order to be in the plus.
Let us see how it happens by the example of the bookmaker Vulkan. Suppose that in a football match Barcelona vs Sevilla the analysts estimated the home team’s victory at 68%, the guests’ win at 10% and the draw at 22%. For European odds, you need to divide 100 by each probability. The lineup of the main outcomes of the match will look like this:
● P1 for odds of 1.47: 100 / 68.
● X for 4.54: 100 / 22.
● P2 for 10.00: 100 / 10.
For example, the bookmaker wants to set the margin at 6%. Then the sum of probabilities will not be 100%, but 106%. This extra 6% will be allocated according to the odds calculated earlier:
● 4.08% to the home team’s win: 6% x 0.68. That makes 72.08%: 68% + 4.08%. ● 1.32% to a draw: 6% x 0.22. Now 23.32%: 22% + 1.32%.
● 0.60% to the away win: 6% x 0.10. It will be 10.60%: 10% + 0.60%. The bookmaker then puts the odds in the line taking into account the margin: ● P1 for odds of 1.39: 100 / 72.08.
● X for 4.29: 100 / 23.32.
● P2 for 9.44: 100 / 10.60.
Adjustment of odds when the line is released
The bookmakers change the set odds in hockey live betting for several reasons. The bookmaker pays attention to the odds of the outcomes of sporting events in other betting bettors. In order not to create a forfeit, the odds are adjusted. A fork is an opportunity to bet on the outcomes of the same market with a guaranteed profit.